Thursday, October 7, 2010

How would the Padres have done?

Day 1 of the playoffs is in the books.  Philadelphia's Roy Halladay no-hit the Reds 4-0.  Since both those teams could have been Padres opponents, I thought:  How would the Padres have done?

1.  Would Halladay have no-hit San Diego?  With the stuff he had last night, Roy Halladay would have no-hit the '27 Yankees.  More to the point, here are the Reds and Padres relative NL rankings in various hitting categories:

  • Average:  Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
  • OBP:  Reds (2nd), Padres (13th)
  • Slugging:   Reds (1st), Padres (15th)
  • ISO:  Reds (2nd), Padres (15th)
  • And of course, wOBA Reds (1st), Padres (15th).
So if Roy Halladay could no-hit the Reds last night, who were in the top 2 in most offensive categories (including nose hair), the Padres would have gotten clobbered.  And probably had a perfect game thrown at them.  Can't you see Ryan Ludwick flailing wildly at all those 'palm balls' Halladay flicked up there?

2.  Would the Padres have no-hit Cincinnati?  A little more difficult to answer.  The game would have been here, so that's an advantage for the Padre starter.  Who would have been the Padre starter?  Chris Young would have pitched the Monday play-in game, so Bud Black's options were Jon Garland on extra rest or Clayton Richard on full rest (let's eliminate Tim Stauffer and Mat Latos from consideration; no way they start Game 1 on short rest).
  • Neither Garland nor Richard have thrown a no-hitter in their careers to date.
  • Garland has 2 post-season starts; he allowed 4 ER in 16 IP (ERA:  2.25) as a White Sox in 2005.  Richard has never started a post-season game.
  • The Reds hit .275/.335/.437 against RHP and .265/.346/.434 against LHP.  That's known as a wash.  No advantage there.
  • The Padres lost both of Richard's starts against Cincinnati this season.  The Padres were 4-2 against Cincinnati overall.  Garland's teams are 2-2 in his career when he started against the Reds.
So probably Garland.  Garland would have 6 days rest between starts (last start 30 Sept).  He is 14-16 career with a 4.86 ERA when starting on that much rest.  He did throw a 4-hitter at the Cubs in that 30 Sept start, but it was a wet cold day in San Diego, which probably helped him out.  If pinned into a corner, I'd say no, the Padres don't no-hit Cincinnati.

Of course, it doesn't matter.  San Diego lost last Sunday.  Which meant I had to do this today.

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