Tuesday, August 31, 2010

It's STILL not time to panic

Sometimes I wonder if anyone reads this blog.  Since no one hazarded a guess on my quiz from Friday, apparently the answer is 'no'.  Bummer.  Either I'll put out the answer after I get a guess, or I'll discuss it on Thursday.

But, since I'm quite clearly writing this blog purely for my own amusement, I can say pretty much whatever I want, right?

Well at least within accepted standards of good taste and decorum.  Except for the quiz post from last week.

Anywho, the Padres are in a bit of a funk right now, aren't they?  Five runs scored in 4 games.  For the first time this season, every member of the rotation has lost a game in succession (and yes, I realize Latos got a no decision on Friday).  If you're a #padres twitter follower, not only did you see a lot of bile and anxiety from Padres fans post-game last night, but a lot of yukking from those small pathetic mortals who call the Giants and Rockies their team of choice.

Like I did earlier this month, I say again (with emphasis this time because I love you):  IT'S NOT TIME TO PANIC.  STILL.

Note that even with a 5-game losing streak in progress, the Padres still sit 6 games ahead of San Francisco on the loss side.  San Diego will play at least .500 ball the rest of the way, meaning the Giants will have to go 22-8.  You know, .733 ball?  Now they have played that well for a stretch this season, but that was before Jonathan Sanchez forgot how to get people out in successive games, and before Tim Lincecum forgot how to get people out at all.  Not worried.

Colorado has to be better - 23-7 (.766 ball) - to catch up.  They haven't played that well all year.  LA?  24-6 (.750 ball).  They haven't played that well all year.  AZ is already out.

Now, I'm not saying this is not a difficult stretch for the Padres.  As I pointed out on Baseball Digest (you like the shot of Bud Black's ear?  I can't figure out the photo settings over there.  Yeah I suck) this is a critical week.  In many ways, the 9 games starting with Philadelphia last Friday through Sunday's final game with Colorado are more difficult than the 17 road games in 21 days.  Philadelphia is now 18-4 all time in Petco.  Arizona has won 2 of every 3 games played against the Padres in Phoenix.  Colorado has won 8 of 12 meetings with the 2010 Padres.  There is cause for concern.  There's just no reason to panic yet.

So who will snap the Padres out of the funk?  Here's the records for our starters following a loss:
  1. Chris Young (1-0).  He's probably not going to snap the funk.
  2. Bullpen (10-2).  I didn't track who started these 12 games, but they pitched well enough to keep the game close.
  3. Mat Latos (7-2).  The best starter on the staff for a reason.
  4. Clayton Richard (5-3).  Not to shabby.
  5. Jon Garland (6-4).  Winning 60% of the games started following a loss?  I'll take it.
  6. Kevin Correia (3-3).  Considering how bad he was in May/June, this is a pleasant surprise.
  7. Wade LeBlanc (1-6).  Another data point highlighting LeBlanc's struggles.
Correia goes tonight.  He won't pitch as badly as he did last Thursday, and I'll bet real money Kennedy won't throw a one-hitter for 7.  HERE ENDETH THE LOSING STREAK.


  1. LCDR, is that you??? I agree, I got upset and turned the game off last night but it is still too early to panic. Hoping tonight brings a different fortune.

  2. It might be me, and so much for that bold prediction.

  3. At least we have the stopper going tonight. I am still not giving up, we are STILL in first place by four games and it is September. So stoked.